ACT Research’s recently released decarbonization forecast, North America Commercial Vehicle OUTLOOK Plus, incorporates expected advancements in zero-emission technologies of battery-electric vehicles (BEV), fuel cell-electric vehicles (FCEV), and natural gas (NG) as an alternative decarbonization technology.
According to Ann Rundle, ACT’s VP, Electrification & Autonomy, “We see BEV as a relatively good solution for decarbonization goals across the various applications and GVW segments that comprise the population of commercial vehicles.” She continued, “We believe there will be deployment of FCEV and continued usage of NG trucks, but these will be in focused, niche applications and will occur at much lower adoption rates when compared to BEV.”
Across the board, ACT Research forecasts a significant increase of unit sales in 2026 for total Class 8 tractor volumes in response to the US EPA 2027 low-NOx regulations.
Regarding the BEV forecast, Rundle shared, “We forecast relatively low adoption rates in 2025 and 2026, as BEV sales of commercial vehicles are still in their early years. Supply-side considerations, including infrastructure challenges, keep adoption rates relatively constrained, but this begins to change in 2027.”
“While MD applications are the sweet spot for BEV adoption right now, CARB’s Advanced Clean Trucks regulation helps push BEV adoption in Class 8, especially tractors, through the end of the decade. Beyond 2030, an advantageous TCO for HD BEV starts to become the primary driving force for adoption in the higher GWV applications,” added Lydia Vieth, ACT’s Research Analyst, Electrification & Autonomy.
“Volumes for FCEV trucks remain relatively low from 2025 through 2029, reflecting the higher TCO of an FCEV compared to alternatives of diesel, NG, and BEV,” she added. “In addition to higher costs, the limited hydrogen fueling infrastructure will restrict adoption to fleets and routes where H2 fueling is available.”
Rundle concluded, “Our near-term NG forecast calls for relatively flat unit sales volumes, independent of top-line Class 8 truck volumes.”
ACT Research’s forecasting solutions, the standard NA CV OUTLOOK and the new OUTLOOK Plus, provide a complete overview of the North American commercial vehicle and transportation market, forecasting Classes 4-8 vehicles and commercial trailers to support industry players as they plan, budget, implement their go-to-market strategy, and utilize third-party insights to guide strategic decisions. Diving deep into relevant demand drivers like regulations and consumer demand, and pivoting on current market activity, the reports highlight a unit forecast across trailers and medium and heavy-duty segments, including powertrain splits (diesel, battery electric, fuel cell electric, and natural gas).
The NA CV forecast reports on the trucking industry forecast, providing a status of commercial vehicle demand, tactical and strategic market analysis and forecasts ranging out five years. The report’s objective is to give OEMs, suppliers, investors, and other interested market participants the information they need to make informed decisions in what is traditionally a deeply cyclical market. The report provides a complete overview of the North American markets, touching on relevant demand drivers starting with forward-looking activity metrics, orders and backlogs. Information included in this report covers build and retail sales forecasts and current market conditions for medium- and heavy-duty trucks/tractors, and trailers, North American macroeconomics by country, freight and carrier market performance, used equipment valuation trends, and regulatory environment analysis and impacts.